Moments of Clarity

The Cult of Warming. Will We Ever Recover?

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When the paragraph of an op-ed piece on Global Warming begins...

Last week marked the 20th anniversary of the mass hysteria phenomenon known as global warming. Much of the science has since been discredited.

...I know I'm in for a treat.

Bret Stephens wrote a piece over at the Wall Street Journal called "Global Warming as Mass Neurosis" In the piece he highlights the science that acts like a big dose of CFC's...ripping holes in the global warming ozone layer.

NASA now begrudgingly confirms that the hottest year on record in the continental 48 was not 1998, as previously believed, but 1934, and that six of the 10 hottest years since 1880 antedate 1954.

The most important portion of the article highlights the most serious flaw in the global warming crisis mentality.  Stephens comments on the fact that 3000 deep ocean robots have actually measured a decrease in ocean temperatures over the last 5 years.

If even slight global cooling remains evidence of global warming, what isn't evidence of global warming? What we have here is a nonfalsifiable hypothesis, logically indistinguishable from claims for the existence of God. This doesn't mean God doesn't exist, or that global warming isn't happening. It does mean it isn't science.

It's just not science. 

This leads me to the ultimate question.

How can so many have absolute, unwaivering and ironclad belief in something unprovable?  I guess they just have faith.   

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I'm listening to a millennial conversation right now

I can't help it.  Two early twenties guys are having a very loud conversation about the world, relationships, the law of attraction, etc.  Each is using explitives every other word even though there are families easily within ear shot.  Each one is describing how screwed up the world is and how they've figured it out.

My only surprise is that niether has texted or put in ear buds yet.  I'm wearing noise cancelling head phones and I can't avoid them. 

All Hail the Gray Hair with Bermuda Shorts and Loafers

A while back, the Des Moines Register had a piece called, "New Generation About to Grab the Torch" (no link because the Register wants me to pay for archives.  Sorry. What used to be a delighter, i.e. free historical content is now a minimum expectation.)

The thrust of the piece was that kids graduating today could very well be the next "Greatest Generation."  So today I wake up to an RSS feed from the Des Moines Business Record containing the article, Employers, meet 'entitlement' grads.

Now I try to monitor my old guy meter (I know...age 36 is so seasoned right) with these grains of salt:

1. Every generation says that the next ones are slackers.
2. I can find great examples of responsible hard working graduates if I ask any parent about their 18 year old graduate. (I don't know many 18 year olds since our kids are young). None yet has said, "Johnnie is a total slacker and will probably end up in prison"
3. Technology has changed everything (as it always has) so I can't discount a generation as slackers when they've had so many more tools and options available to them for their ENTIRE existence. 

Let's remember that as a 1994 college grad (not that long ago!) I had ZERO Internet to use in my life because it barely existed for normal humans.  I did have AOL 1.0 and Compuserve.   But let's face it, today I could outsource a paper to India on a Friday at noon, and expect it in my inbox by Monday at noon for a few hundred bucks on my "Yeah Spend! Card from Discover with a free iPod and 10 ringtones! I got by signing up for instant approval in the quad.

I struggle not to agree with the articles author Steven Winzenburg.  He says:

Today's "entitlement generation" wants jobs where they can relive their childhoods with fun group activities, flexible schedules and entertaining shared assignments.

This attitude pervades the classroom, where many students see nothing wrong with copying material verbatim off the Internet or turning in work late. If they receive poor grades, they blame the professor for failing to help them enough, or if they miss a deadline, they blame others. This is all part of the "teamwork" mentality that says they don't need to be held personally responsible for their actions.

Mr. Winzenburg goes on to discuss the responses he receives in his career seminar class:

When I ask the seniors in my career seminar class what they want in a new job, they often respond that they want to have "fun" and to work with "nice people." They are looking for another childhood experience instead of adapting to the demanding world of business.

Ahh...the crux of it all..."Looking for another childhood experience" where everyone is great, no one is better than anyone else, and you always get a gold star because you showed up.

If we experienced another "boom" like the dot com version...would we find youth ready to step up and work the insane hours only possible in youth? (much harder at 36 and beyond FYI kids) If a start up didn't have an XBOX of Playstation for break time would anyone stay at the company? 

Man it's tough because we must make sweeping generalizations about "generations" period.  But just from my ad hoc experience the workplace must adapt and become very fluid and unstructured.  It needs to measure results vs. expectations about "time spent" in the office.  Assignments need to be clearly defined as "must be original content" vs. "scrape the web". 

Is this all feel good hooey?  I'm not sure.  My pendulum has certainly swung from being a cubicle worker bee to wanting the satisfaction of creating something and living with my own choices. (RentalMetrics)

But wait...I guess the difference is that I'm doing it on the back of my own hard work, smart (and dumb) decisions, time spent busting my hump, taking chances with start ups, making less when friends were making more, working in crappy offices with server "closets" when other were swiping their ID cards to enter the hundred million dollar NOC, and the last little difference...

I NEVER considered folding up and going back to mom and dad as an option.  It was perfectly clear that at age 18 I was an ADULT and responsible for my life.  Mom and Dad weren't "mean" (I'm sure they'd get that diagnosis today).  They knew instinctively that setting me on the path to total self-reliance was the right thing to do.  My dad told me clearly, "This is it...the last of the resources we'll provide you son.  From here on out, we'll give you a 1-way plane ticket, a temporary place to live, and no judgments if your life crumbles...but this is it." 

That obviously made an impression on me that moving back with mom and dad was a last resort and clear indicator of failure to become an independent man.  That wasn't explicitly stated, but back then I guess innuendo with a dash of possible shame had some impact on me as a youth.  Today it seems...not so much.

(No offense if you're reading this on the MacBook you bought on the credit card your parents paid off when you moved back into the basement...yes turn down the iPod I mean you).

For Sale: 2006 Honda Pilot, EX AWD

It has a bit less than 21k miles on it and I've owned it now for 2 years and 3 months. I just don't need a car at the moment between the Trek Madone, the Trek Mountain Bike, and our other car.

Edmunds says it's worth about $21,777.

The first $21,016.23 takes it.  Email me:  doug at mitchgroup dot com

2006 Honda Pilot EX 4dr SUV AWD
	Trade-In	Private Party	Dealer Retail
National Base Price	$18,815	$20,291	$21,404
Optional Equipment	$0	$0	$0
Color Adjustment Gray	$-41	$-45	$-47
Regional Adjustment for Zip Code 50266	$-47	$-51	$-54
Mileage Adjustment 21,000 miles	$538	$538	$538
Condition Adjustment Outstanding	$1,017	$1,044	$1,128
Total	$20,282	$21,777	$22,969

Certified Used Vehicle	$24,198

Listen to Rush Nigut Tonight on Jim Goodman's Iowa Business Hour

No excuses.  www.983wowfm.com streams live so either tune into 98.3 FM if you're in the Des Moines metro....or fire up your browser if you're in Boston.  Listen to Attorney Rush show his brilliance in all matters of law and business (and who knows what else). 

I feel like Mutual of Omaha's Wild Kingdom is happening here in my yard

You know watching Marlin Perkins calmly talk me through the lion ripping the flesh from a gazelle carcass was no big deal.  But now I have dogs (I now casually call them "The Murderers") executing everything from new born bunnies to hours old squirrels.  Well today, one dog plucked a bird from a low flying trajectory...snapping its neck and that sent the entire bird family in my backyard into a tweeting frenzy that's STILL going on as I type.  That bird family is having a VERY bad day now.

It's cool to watch on TV but cleaning up the aftermath of fresh kills is no pleasure in Clive, Iowa.  Please doggies, I give you kibble...so don't make my Clive backyard a killing field.

My new answer to "How's it going?"

I feel like a circus clown riding a unicycle
Juggling a chainsaw, a hatchet, and a bowling ball.

Gateway Market - Opening in West Des Moines after others FAIL

I wrote about my struggles with The Marketplace at Jordan Creek when it was still in business some time ago.
Now the thriving Gateway Market (Woodland/MLK) is opening a West Des Moines location sometime in June down near Art Dinkin in the Village at Ponderosa development.  So when it opens, go experience great customer service, the right sized selection, and then stop by and say hi to Art.

My Current Top 10 Why's?

I've been saving up a few why's lately.  I can't hold them any longer.

1. Why do the Dem Presidential contenders get a free pass effectively on the question, "If we go ahead and pull the soldiers out of Iraq like you want to...then what's next?  What's your "post withdrawal plan?" It makes no sense that an effectively disengaged 3rd party who's rhetoric is geared toward winning an election...and not actually solving the problem is not scrutinized heavily.  They can't answer that question because they aren't confronting the day to day operations there per Gen. Petraeus.  "Everything in Iraq is hard" but the Dem contenders want him to give "easy answers".  It's a crappy position to be in but and regardless of the cause/reasons...we're there. 
2. Why do we hear things like, "If we don't stop doing A or B, Muqtada Al Sadr will "lift his cease fire order" or what have you?  Huh?  I know we have some pretty precise and some not so precise weapons that could pretty much turn he and his troupe into pink spray.  I have trouble grasping how "War" can be fought from a seemingly neutered position.
3. Why would a smoking ban for the public good...exclude casinos? 
4. Why don't we get a boatload of free oil or dramatically reduced price oil from Iraq...who's collective a$$ we've liberated?  Free or cheap oil certainly would disrupt the profit steam of oil companies and our Arab OPEC buddies right?  This junk makes me believe that our government/President are so in bed with the Arab nations that we literally are willing to sacrifice ourselves to maintain loyalty to whatever promises/arrangements keep the power base stable. 
5. Why do we continue to IGNORE the fact that our educational system is failing?  I think we believe that "that's not my kid or my school's problem"?  It is our problem.  I heard somewhere that the average H1B visa recipient's salary is something like $140k/year.  Do we really lack the technical smarts here to fill jobs like this with our own labor force?  I don't get it.
6. Why won't a Presidential candidate resolve the "Social Security Dilemma" by saying, "Look, here's my plan, starting in 2050, there's no more social security.  Some of you will have to keep paying and you're screwed...but that's it.  The safety net program that has become a welfare program is gone.  Fixed. 
7. Why does Clive has such a screwed up recycling program?  We have a little green bin but we're told to actually "separate" the items, don't include colored glass, etc.  Then, a guy comes around and HAND SORTS it into a truck.  So odd.
8. Why do I have to reboot my windows machine once daily to get back to crawl speed? 
9. Why don't companies respond to EVERY customer service inquiry or suggestion?  If you feel your opinion doesn't matter...you'll go somewhere else right?  Is this not basic knowledge?
10. Why do we really believe that Google has our best interest at heart by hosting our life's data?

"Umm, I'd like a large pepperoni and a box of hollow points please."

Recently, a pizza delivery driver was confronted by a man as he was making a delivery.  (full story in DSM Register)  The man put a handgun to the delivery driver's head and demanded money, etc. 

The delivery guy simultaneously grabbed the perp's gun, withdrew his own, and shot the alleged assailant multiple times. 

The alleged assailant was arrested later after calling for medical help.  The pizza delivery guy is a legal holder of a CCW permit (concealed weapons permit).  However, it's Pizza Hut's policy that no driver can carry a weapon.  Thus, he's been suspended until the matter is investigated.

A spokesperson for Pizza Hut said the following:

"We have policy against carrying weapons," said Vonnie Walbert, vice president of human resources at Pizza Hut's corporate offices in Dallas. "We prohibit employees from carrying guns because we believe that that is the safest for everybody."

I just have a few points I'd like to make and welcome your commentary.

1. What Pizza Hut probably believes is that a policy of no weapons means less liability for incidents like this. 
2. I understand why businesses want to limit their liability and this pushes the true question of "right to carry" to the forefront of the conversation. 
3. Questions about whether or not this was a valid use of lethal force are nil if the story is accurate.  No matter how it's parsed, when someone puts a gun to your head, you can shot them dead where they stand. 
4. We cannot make excuses about the alleged assailant's "intent".  Whether or not he was going to pull the trigger or not, he had a gun to the other man's head.  He picked the wrong man to rob that day. Apparently the woman that ordered the pizza was allegedly in on the deal...and has been charged with conspiracy.  Yikes...an ambush armed robbery attempt it seems.
5. There are specific things one must do to obtain a CCW permit in Iowa (currently regulated by county sheriffs).  These include background checks and completion of a training course in which laws, situations, rules, and qualification are executed.  In other words, the current system weeds out law breaking wackos and winnows the pool of authorized carriers down to a focus group of qualified people.

I invite you to add your opinions and thoughts here.  No one is happy that anyone got shot and many out there suggest that "you better shoot them dead because if you don't, you'll be paying the rest of your life in lawsuits regardless of your innocence".  At the end of the day it appears that the constitution of the US and "the system" worked here.  But this guy will probably be fired and you KNOW that Pizza Hut will ultimately be settling out of court for millions with this felon or his family.

Argh.

 

RAGBRAI 2008 - The Quest For An RV Begins

As we look forward to RAGBRAI 2008, I can say with certainty that my good friends from California based Luke Manohans Cycle Tours are coming out for their 3rd (can you believe it) ride across our beautiful state.

This year however, we'd like to travel in a bit more style so we're looking for an RV to accommodate 6-8 people (floor sleeping is OK).  I'm sure I can find some outfit somewhere that will rent one to me, but I'm calling on my Central Iowans first to see if someone has a sweet old Winnebago sitting around gathering dust they'd like to offer up in some kind of barter deal???

Of course, if you want to provide the diesel pusher tour bus that's fine too.  The bottom line is that we'd fill the thing with 6-8 responsible 30 somethings (including an doctor and our spouses) and your shiny machine will come back looking better than ever. 

Let me know ASAP if we can figure something out y'all.  Can you imagine how big the party in Ames will be this time around?  Yikes!

Will Las Vegas dry up and wither away?

Researchers have now indicated that Lake Mead, fed by the mighty Colorado and water source to millions (and all of Las Vegas, Nevada), will possibly run dry by 2021.  The lake is down dramatically and hydroelectric plants are already operating well below capacity due to reduced flow.

But here's the rub.  They say,

That water is not being replenished, they noted, and human demand, evaporation and human-induced climate change are fueling the growing deficit.

The system is already at half capacity because of eight years of drought.

"When expected changes due to global warming are included as well, currently scheduled depletions are simply not sustainable," Barnett and Pierce write in the study.

The two analyzed federal records of past water demand as well as calculations of scheduled water allocations and climate conditions.

They've neatly tucked human demand and human-induced climate change into the model.  Of course it's human demand...since the animal kingdom is short on opposable thumbs and still doesn't shower. 

What exactly did they measure to find out how much humans have induced the climate change.  Isn't it odd that in the same article we read,

This view of Lake Mead was taken last July 26, during the seventh straight year of drought that had caused the lake to drop more than 100 feet to its lowest level since the late 1960s.

Wow.  So it did reach this level in the 60's huh? I guess Al Gore was only a kid then and hadn't yet invented the Internet, the Lock Box, and the farcical global warming panic we see just about daily in the news.  I guess back then we called it "drought" and "!@#$% it's HOT this year".

Please.  I think that Las Vegas has undertaken irresponsible development  with regard to water resources and may be stressing the natural biorhythm of the ecosystem.  But articles that support the notion that the blame for 8 years of drought can heaved onto the back of humanity make me ill.  It's a bloomin' desert man!

When the lake reaches historic highs in 9 years...we'll just have to give give credit where credit is due...to President Obama's climate initiatives. 

Article on MSNBC.com

 

The Middle Class Squeeze Myth

I've been an offender...I must admit.  I've said, "The Middle Class is Disappearing" and getting "Squeezed".  Intuitively, it made sense to parrot the pundits with all of the doom and gloom in the news.

Take a look however at this little video put together by the Wall Street Journal.  It stars Drew Carey and it's a fun and economically sound examination of what the Middle Class is really going through today...and how it can afford so much stuff.

This video will at least challenge your ideas about how bad off the Middle Class really is.  What is the definition of middle class anyway now? 

What seems more plausible is that the expectations of the middle class have risen so much during the last 10 years.  Not too long ago, an "average TV" for the house, maybe 27" or 32" if you were really doing well sold for $300-$600.  Now the minimum entry point is 42"inch plasma...and those have just come down to about $1k.  Regular TV? No way.  The entry point of the HD plans on any service is now about $60/month.  "But I've got the HDTV...I deserve to see the programs at their best right?

I could go on ad nauseum but think about your parents for a moment.  Mine are 57.  My family was archetypal middle class.  The first new car they bought was in 1984 (age 34).  Dad was a union butcher.  Mom stayed home.  We took a vacation every other year after about the age of 12 that usually involved driving immense distances and sleeping at rest stops.  My mom mostly cooked and eating out was a treat.

Today, it's a very different picture.  Is the Middle Class really being squeezed or is it that some just don't have more credit available to them to keep up with the Joneses?

Forclosure - The Financially Prudent Option?

Peter Viles, a blogger/journalist contributing to the LA TIMES blogs, posted a great piece today on an emerging kind of middle income homeowner.  This kind of homeowner is choosing foreclosure because it's a smarter business decision than sticking it out.  Here's a chilling quote:

Wachovia, in a conference call yesterday, warned  investors that increasing numbers of homeowners are walking away from their homes by choice: "... people that have otherwise had the capacity to pay, but have basically just decided not to because they feel like they've lost equity, value in their properties..."

Calculated Risk notes this is "one of the greatest fears for lenders ... that it will become socially acceptable for upside down middle class Americans to walk away from their homes."

I think that this attitude won't make up a large percentage of foreclosures...but enough to add fuel to the housing downturn. 

Is this the ultimate lack of personal responsibility here?  There's nothing in the rule book that says, you MUST pay if you can pay...right?  A foreclosure apparently will buy you XX months of time living "free" in the house before you're removed.

If a couple purchased the home for $600k, it's now worth $380k, and their mortgage is $600k (believe me it's far more common than you think), and all economic news is gloom and disaster, it would be more tempting to consider this option.

Our Iowa market is still very stable.  Heck it really never boomed like the coasts.  It appears that I got out of SoCal (Corona, CA) at the peak of the market in the summer of 2005 when I executed my Geographic Arbitrage.  I got lucky and wasn't greedy. 

I know plenty of people who are just like you and me that owe far more on their homes than they could get by selling.  It's only a matter of time before the home equity lines and platinum cards run out.  There will likely be a glut of white suburbans, personal watercraft, and ATV's for sale shortly.

Recovery...day 5

I am in my 5th day of post surgical recovery.  Through my "rampant athleticism" I encountered an inguinal hernia. Yes I know. 

Apparently, hernias are pretty much pre-determined throughout your body...much like aneurysms.  Whether you do something to expose them/rupture them/etc...is the question.

Well.  After tons of lower ab work, swimming 3k meters after biking for 45 minutes, and having a few colds with coughs that shook the earth...I "exposed mine".  Lowest abdominal wall muscle...almost where your leg and abs meet.  Honestly if I rested and didn't do anything w/the lower abs it went back to normal.   However, there's nothing normal about triathlon training so I opted to have it fixed now while the temps are frigid. 

You don't appreciate how much you use your abs in EVERYTHING YOU DO until you've had them cut/stitched/wire meshed/etc and sewn back together. 

Of course every woman who's had a c-section continues to put me down and claim that "you don't know what pain is until they've pulled a 9lb kid out of you" (say it while putting on the 2 snaps up...um um um no you DIT-UNT ) voice and be sure to do the hand motion and you'll get the felling.  Oh well.  I'll silently toil with my bottle of meds and go watch Junior.

Ronald Reagan Optimism...Applied to Web 2.0

The essay I've linked to here was written by my friend Isaac Garcia of Central Desktop.  His prose cuts through the TwiiterBook noise of the last year in technology and provides encouraging words about what's coming.  It was the Optimism 2008 winning essay on Gigaom. 

Lunch with Mitt Romney

After my breakfast with Meg Whitman...I thought for sure I was done meeting high profile folks for a while.  Then I got a call from my friend J. Michael McKoy.  "Come on by for my son's birthday party...and Mitt Romney is going to stop by, take a break from campaigning...and watch some football" the invite said. 

We headed over early and upon arrival, Steph and I were blown away by the array of cameras and equipment already present.  "This is going to be live on CNN" someone said.  Yikes.  Over the next 45 minutes, about 150 people filled Mac's living room.  Nice little party Mac ;)

Mitt arrived and shared some mic time with his son.  He stumped on his plans and strengths...then spent time working the crowd. We had a great time and offer up yet further thanks to the McKoy's and Ms. Hathaway for putting on and managing such a big doin's.

After departing, I was just buzzed with excitement and joy yet again.  I can't believe how lucky we are to live in Iowa.  We've gone from knowing about 2 people in this state...to living a rich and full life filled with exciting people, places,  and experiences in about 24 months.  As we prepare to caucus tomorrow night for the first time, the excitement is crescendoing!  Much of our network has grown organically (no farming pun intended) because the people of Iowa are so real.  Iowa affords someone who's willing...a way to connect and extend.  Thank you Iowa and its its people for being the salt of the earth.

You can view the entire photo album from this event on Flickr by clicking here.

What To Expect In 2008

2008 will be a pretty darn exciting year.  If I have to sum up my outlook on 2008 into one word, it will be:

Involved.

Life has lots of moving parts right now. 

New business(es), new connections, new relationships, new markets, new customers, new modalities, new commitments, new passions, new cars, new athleticism, new toys, new growth, new breakthroughs, new toughness, new technologies, new challenges, new charity, new priorities, new decisions, and new President.

Joel Kotkin takes a stroll down bell bottom way

I'm always juiced when Mr. Kotkin puts out another opinion piece because his work is "littered" with facts, pragmatism, and reality.  How odd.

His piece called,  "Playing That '70's Funk Again, but Not in a Good Way" appears today in the Washington Post.  Kotkin reminds us in his writings that our human species has the tendency to forget the past when examining the present.

Kotkin says,

The country is in a funk. Oil prices are at record highs, and the dollar is plummeting. Foreigners are buying out leading U.S. business assets. Environmentalists say the world is headed toward an ecological crackup of biblical proportions.

Today's headlines? Well, yes. But for those of us old enough to remember, they could just as easily be bulletins from one of the grimmest decades in recent U.S. history: the '70s.

I believe that the way we handle the ebbs and flows of societal-economic condition is distinctly determined by parental training.  I have a vibrant working dad that didn't have much time to lift his head from the grindstone (in Southern CA, we called this a commute) to be gloomy.  He also showed me by example that work is plentiful no matter what the man in the "Idiot Box" says.  Watching Star Trek and its positive messages about hope, integrity, and inter-galactic relations just before bed served us far better than listening to Jerry Dunphy tell us about record gas prices in Azusa. 

That's probably why I have developed such zeal for working in start up companies.  "Hey no matter what, I could always go get a job tomorrow if I had to" is my mantra.  Of this...I am certain dad. 

Now as I develop my own company, I find myself reading a lot less news...and watching a lot more Star Trek. 

The ticking time bomb approaches

1:46PM - Friday, December 28
My in laws were going to leave this morning.  Turns out, one got violently ill with some kind of virus.  Of course, we don't like to think of such things...but there is no "24 hour stomach flu".  What you've encountered in all likelihood is a food borne illness caused by gross things...the genesis of which involved not washing hands...and I'll leave the rest to you.  Now, about 12 hours later, another relative has it. 

Oh you foul cruel incubation machine!  With every twitter in my belly I'm thinking I'm next.  And what of the kids?  If they get this...it will come without warning and alas...we'll be borrowing our neighbors "Green Machine" carpet cleaner. 

These are the days when I swear to never go out to eat again.  I know where MY hands have been!

Scrub up yawl.

The High Deductible Plan with a Health Savings Account (HSA)

Most folks I meet don't know the first thing about a high deductible health care plan with a Health Savings Account.  There are a few misconceptions out there too.  I'm going to share my experience with this type of health care plan.  I'm certain that I'll gloss over some details and such so please correct me if I've misstated a fact.

1. This is an individual plan.  No more "what if my company does X, Y, or Z.  It's yours.  As a self-employed person, you have complete control.  That's good.
2. A "high deductible plan" still offers good coverage for the stuff you'd expect (accidents, disease, transplants, etc.)...however you're responsible for paying more (up to your deductible amount per year) as medical issues arise.
3. Premiums for high deductible plans are often very reasonable.  I'm actually below $300 for my entire family plan now.
4. You can get a deductible as low as $3k for a family. 
5. The Health Savings Account component of this system is where you stash money to pay for bills that arise...like a visit to the doctor , a physical, a broken arm, a case of the mumps, etc.
6. The amount you put into the HSA is counted as PRE-TAX money as far as the IRS is concerned.  In other words, you put in $3k and at the end of the year, you take $3k off the top of your income as though it went into an IRA or 401K, etc.  Depending on your tax bracket...this can make the cost of this money far cheaper than $3k.
7. If you don't spend the money each year, it remains for you, earning interest and available to pay whatever medical bills you may need to pay.  The HSA is NOT like a flexible spending account  (FSA) that must be used up annually. 
8. Your deductible is the upper limit of your responsibility.  If you pay out that much, you don't pay after that threshold is reached.
9. When you visit the doctor, you don't pay a co-pay typically.  You receive a bill that is "discounted" according to the insurance rules.  Let's say an $80 doctor visit becomes $48....then you pay $48 with your HSA.
10. Your HSA typically has great options like a VISA/DEBIT card to pay on the spot for prescriptions.  If your doctor takes VISA as well, then you can send back the bill with the payment information included. 
11. If you use a company called Health Equity for your HSA account management, you'll get a whole host of great features and benefits.  These guys have really taken the HSA to the next level.  Don't short change yourself by using any old bank's HSA.  Health Equity has gotten is right.  You have complete on line management of the account.  It really puts you in control. 
12. If you do the math, a $3k deductible ($250/mo) + my premium ($300)/mo = $550/month.  If we don't visit the doctor for 3 months...my net health care cost during that quarter was $900...and I've "pocketed" $750...and that same $750 comes off the top of my income at tax time. 
13. There are certain rules that apply to these accounts and I'm pretty certain that employers cannot pay the premiums for employees...but there are ways employers can help.  Ask your attorney/tax man/financial planner/insurance agent about those.  I don't fit one of those job descriptions (thus people generally like me).

If you'd like to know more about these plans or get specific, I'll refer you to the good folks that took care of me.  If your questions are answerable by me...I'll do my best.

I highly recommend that you explore this option if you're self-employed...or looking to become self-employed.  There's NO reason to pay your $800+ per month COBRA bill while you launch your new venture...when you can take a proactive and self-directed path with your family's health care insurance needs.   

This is really the first step we can take towards some kind of re-do on the health care debacle we face now.  It puts REAL dollar amounts on services that YOU the insured SEE.  You find out that an MRI that took 30 minutes was $700...and you are going to pay $350 of that. These services don't just magically get done because you have insurance.  EVERYONE is paying for them and that's why premiums are going up at something like 12% per year! 

Take control.  Ask questions.  Do the math. 

Wii Update

The Wii is everything we thought it would be. I'm getting destroyed daily by World Series of Poker champions.  Heck I'm even getting beaten by average schlubs in the game.  It's too easy for me to go on TILT and start betting recklessly.  I find the sports games are more fun when people come over.

In any case.  Reports are that this past Sunday, stores around the US got BIG shipments.  My neighbor was 24th in a line of 106.  Best Buy got 104 units.  Another friend said that Target got 102 last week.

Perhaps Nintendo was holding out on the junkies...measuring demand....and then satisfying it in a big rush by injecting a BIG hit into the shopping veins it so controls already?

Wii on my wayward son...

My quarterly "Hey, remember the Israeli soldier still held captive by Hamas" update

Now Gilad Shalit will be killed if Israel conducts a "large scale operation" in the Gaza strip, according to Hamas spokespeople.  There's nothing like deciding to put soldiers into combat knowing you've likely signed a death sentence for one of your own. 

 

Ode To Wii

Groggy, disheveled,  with crust in my eyes.
I cruised the parking lot of a few Best Buys.
Eighteen in stock, 36 people in line.
Nintendo Wii today, will not be mine.

Alas! it seems CompUSA has some!
According to ads, they'll serve those who come.
How many in stock? the question of the day.
35 degrees outside, but snow is on the way.

A cheerful group present, good spirits in all.
The cold front moves in, line up against the wall.
Hey Look!  They're here! employees going in.
They're milling about, and typing things in.

Snow here now and the temp is falling.
Twenty four degrees and my skin is crawling.
Wind blown drifts pepper my skin.
The lights go on! They're letting us in!

Will this be the end of my wait?
The manager arrives to deliver my fate.
"We have 5 in stock" but it seems I'm 6th.
For 5 we have Wii's, for Doug we have nix.

The search continues and conquer I will.
Just as soon as my body loses its chill.
I guess today it was not to be.
Oh damn you damn you damn you Wii!

Absolutely Wii-Licious

I decided about a month ago that the Wii was the gift that would give our family some fun time together without the TV (so to speak).  I can't believe how brilliantly the Wii has captured such a wide demographic swath.  I would NEVER consider the XBOX or Playstation because honestly, I'm just not a gamer and I don't want to waste time "getting to level 28 and achieving GodMode" or whatever you call it these days.

However, my belief about the Wii is that my entire family including 2 sub-5 year olds will be able to go bowling together , play golf together, and generally just have fun together on less complicated "short term" games.  I find this so fascinating...that the other game boxes probably have simple games, etc...yet I have no intent on getting them whatsoever.

The Nintendo folks have done a marvelous job positioning this game box and the complete sell out all over the globe is a testament to that.  It seems that I and the rest of the world want one this XMAS.  I'm on the hunt and will probably end up lining up outside a store somewhere in the next few weeks. 

Some local outlets got inventory today but it did require staking out a spot to get one.  Oh well, I'll stay on the hunt and stay in awe of the Wii-Licious job of branding/marketing/positioning that Nintendo has done.

Bravo!

Code Red Emergency Alert System

Apparently Clive, West Des Moines, and Urbandale folks can register for this system called CODE RED. Details Here.
The bottom line here is that you're subscribed to an emergency auto-dial system that will contact you RAPIDLY if there's a large scale emergency, terror attack, pending disaster, etc.

Sign up folks, it can't hurt to gain extra minutes if it hits the fan.

Iowa Tobacco Tax Collectors Calling

We received an envelope from the state telling us we owed tax money due the state from cigarettes purchased online.  We don't smoke, but a relative that visited for 2 weeks procured boxes of smokes online, and had them sent here, in our name of course.  Thus, we're paying the tax.

The forms don't actually say, "You bought these 10 items, etc."  It says, "you are responsible for the tax so call and tell us what you bought".  I'm guessing the law suits they've filed only release names and that it happened not exactly how much was bought.

In any case, we've now had to endure phone calls and discussions with state folks that really don't have anything to do with us because they ask you what you bought, they tell you how much to pay, etc.  Totally inefficient and bothersome.  I was half tempted to tell the lady that whatever happened, I never received anything and that I don't know what she's talking about...and if she called again, I'd call the Attorney General.  The total by the way is $18.60.  Merry XMAS relative smoke buyer :) 

The message here is that if you're going to buy smokes online and avoid paying taxes...to do it in someone else's name so they get nabbed with the bill vs. you.  Wait, I mean don't smoke but if you do, buy from David's Briar Shop in the Merle Hay Mall.....(or in Ontario Mills Mall in CA....no really his aunt runs it).

Societal Devolution via Ear Buds

Today's youth...and even gen X (of which I'm a part of), are walking through life with ear buds in, immersing in whatever music/media makes them happy.  I know there's a great time and place for this form of entertainment or escape, but I see an overwhelming percentage of gen Y and younger walking around interacting only with an ipod or a cell phone.  It seems ironic that "communication tools, social media tools, and collaboration tools" are exploding but it seems that more and more youth can't write well or speak well for that matter.

I've just consulted with a good friend of mine who's tried to find talented interns to work in a very dynamic collaboration software start up in Southern CA.  He's had NO luck with hundreds of resumes in a robust market where they all seem to be "Facebook, nihilist, politics suck, Bush is an idiot, no hobbies, can't talk or write oblivious to the world" types.

I'm obviously generalizing here but I think that it will take a new Renaissance to awaken the spirits of Gen Z.  Ditch your noise cancelling "only my world exists for me" ear buds for a week and take a listen.  You might encounter some things you like.

Oh how the news irks me

In the face of 3.9% economic growth (brisk by any standards) and adding 110k jobs and "benign inflation".  The following are some headlines taken from Yahoo news on "US Economy".  Let me summarize the headlines for you simply and you can analyze this:
1. Shaky - In Trouble
2. Turmoil
3. Mortgage Crisis
4. Less than Forecast
5. Income stagnates

These were all in ONE little window that I cut and pasted.

So as oil gets up over $100 soon, let's all gather 'round and do a 300 million man march on Washington to decry their policies of hate and ruin...wait a tick...we're too busy working.  My bad. 

      

News Stories

      

• Shaky Markets Prompt Rumors of Who�s in Trouble at The New York Times (reg. req'd) - Fri, Aug 10, 2007
• Turmoil in U.S. mortgage market goes global at Newsday - Fri, Aug 10, 2007
• U.S., European central banks step in to contain mortgage crisis at San Francisco Chronicle - Fri, Aug 10, 2007
• Productivity Grows Less Than Forecast at Bloomberg.com - Tue, Aug 07, 2007
• As U.S. income stagnates, Democrats reject free trade McClatchy Washington Bureau via Yahoo! News - Wed, Aug 01, 2007

      

» More News Stories

   

   

Mayor Of Newton Iowa Speaking Now

Same day they were celebrating the new formation of the Iowa Speedway, they found out that Maytag was going to be shut down....on May 9, 2006. Trying to create a local safety net.  Newton has landed another manufacturing company that will replace 500-700 jobs. 

John Ratzenberger is LIVE

1. Our military is using foreign bullets, armor, and shoes.
2. Without a manufacturing base, how will we make the things we need to protect ourselves in time of large scale war?
3. Shop courses /home ec classes cancelled...in Oakland and drop out rate went up 30%.
4. Young people NOT going to manufacturing jobs.
5. Manufacturing people in the media are depicted as drunks, uneducated, and wife beaters.
6. Today's "helicopter parents" hover and don't let kids do anything.
7. Common sense comes from DOING THINGS...make mistakes....let kids do stuff.
8. When something broke..you fixed it...you didn't run down to Target and buy another!
9. Our politicians are selling out our future.
10. Don't vote for anyone that uses the "Clinton Thumb point"  :)  (Rousing applause on that one)

Great stuff.

State Senator Tom Courtney

Tom Courtney:  State Senator speaking now.  He's posing some questions.  "Who will buy the products that are so cheap from China...when no one has the money to do it?

"Americans will pay a little more for a product made in America"

Made in America! Live blogging

I'm here at HyVee Hall waiting for John Ratzenberger to arrive.  This is a large and diverse crowd.

My "media treatment" got me dinner and a nice isle seat :)  The crowd looks diverse in race, style of dress, and disposition.   This is my kind of heartland crowd.   Reporting live from the heartland...Doug

Where's the doomsday Media Machine?

I like to remind everyone...oh about every 3 months that oil is now over $87/barrel and actually crested over $88 for a while yesterday.  Now, if you recall, not too long ago we had a "crisis" here in the US (one of many) that was presented to us over and over and over again by the news media.  "Gas will be $9.00/gallon", "Global shortages endanger our very existence unless we immediately do X, Y, and of course Z.".  I heard them all.

Yesterday, as oil hit a record, I paid $2.539/gallon for 89 Octane.  When oil was in the $60's and $70's, there were times I paid $3/gallon (or on trips to CA, nearly $4/gallon). 

I understand there's all kinds of machinations between raw crude supplies, refining capacity, etc...but for whatever reason, the media has stopped hyping this "global crisis" for now.  Thus, record oil prices are translating into what is now...the "low end" of the gas price spectrum. 

The "news" does not reflect the reality of mankind in most headline topics.  It's someone's buzz machine to drive ratings.  Remember that when you're asked to pay more taxes or give up sovereignty because we're facing a "crisis".   Remember.

I just can't get out of the news lately

Remember that pre-Iowa Caucus focus group I participated in recently?  Here's the Des Moines Register piece on that with some quotes by yours truly. It was an interesting night to say the least.  I used, and got quoted using one of my favorite words...........TRAVESTY!

Energy Rage

I was recently in a group in which a majority lambasted Ethanol because:

1. It ruins the water supply
2. It's subsidized and that's not fair
3. It will ruin the land for the future
4. It pollutes

Interesting points.  However, the same arguments were used to vilify oil and gas companies (still going on of course).  Has the govt not subsidized oil production / refinery manufacturing through the years?  Haven't our own tax dollars been redistributed to a bazillion cockamamie things other than gaining a foothold on energy independence?  Yes.  There is economic realignment happening and yes...there will be some fallout.  Most radical change does this.  Are wind and solar the answer?  Will they happen over time? Yes.  Can they run our cars now? No.  Done.  Chavez bad. Ethanol good.

Next issue:  Nuclear Power. Here's a CNET piece on the looming comeback of Nuclear Energy.
How many people have been helped by Nuclear energy vs. those who've perished?  How many people wouldn't have died and had a more fruitful life and opportunity from this method of power generation?  There's new focus on what to do and how to effectively reuse the by-products of production (nuclear waste). The benefits outweigh the dangers.  Yes I'm OK with one in my back yard.  YIMBY.

I knew this would happen..

I'm sure it's happened before...and I'm sure it will again.  Someone was attacked on the West Des Moines Green Belt Trail...from behind...via a bike riding attacker. Des Moines Register Story.

My wife rides this occasionally and since this was done at 3PM in the afternoon...obviously the person doesn't care.  The woman escaped serious injury but I'm sure the mental aspects are tougher.

I'm always hyper-aware on those trails.  If for no other reason, it will help me dodge the wildlife that could cause me to tumble.  If I were moseying along I'd be less inclined to pay attention.  There are a TON of people that walk or jog with ear buds and ipods too.  I guess the right target hadn't come along for this creature.

Please be cautious and let's catch this thing.

Would you put a device on your kid to track his/her every move?

Apparently, new technology that's been honed for years in the military to avoid friendly fire, etc...is coming online in the consumer world. CNET article here.

This RADAR chip technology is trackable anywhere whereas GPS is stymied by buildings/walls/structures, etc.

Imagine a bread crumb trial of all your kids moves...hum...lucky this wasn't available during my youth.  I mean what great technology!  It's target at campers and certainly toward high power traveling execs that may be subject to kidnapping, etc. 

Uh Oh Housing

As reported by the NAR, pending home sales are down 12%.  The NAR usually has a way of spinning every bit of bad real estate news into the greatest news ever.  An example below.  Aritcle in the WSJ.

"These temporary problems are primarily with jumbo loans, and there are continuing issues for subprime borrowers, but there are no serious problems for the majority of buyers who qualify for conventional financing or FHA-insured loans," Mr. Yun said. "Some consumer concerns remain, but since mid-August the market has been stabilizing somewhat.

I see the market as having not shed light on the true scope and magnitude of the fallout yet. 

Follow my logic stream

In 1909, Congress amended the Constitution to allow it to create income tax.

In parallel...
In 1909, a dry spell began in San Bernardino County of southern California that lasted until the 6th of May in 1912, a stretch of 994 days! Another dry spell, lasting 767 days, then began in October of 1912.

Logical conclusion:  Congress caused global warming that caused drought by creating income tax.

Historical note:  Attribution for a nearly 3 year lack of rain was not attributed to global warming rather...people generally said, "Yikes it's hot and dry". 

Author's note:  Notoriously wet and cool periods that follow this extraordinary dry period were attributed to an increase of Moose flatulence in what would later become the 49th state (Alaska) by some fringe underground newspapers. 

Top 10 Things I Heard From Barack Obama at the Iowa State Fair Today

The top 10 things I overheard when I passed by Barack Obama at the Iowa State Fair today.

10.  "My God I'm thin"
9. "I just ate whaaaaaatttttt?"
8.  "Hey...You know I'm gonna raise your taxes right?.......Awwwweeee I'm just messin' with ya."
7.  "Did HOGZILLA swallow a couple of Wilson footballs or what?"
6. (To the secret service agents with him).."pssst..do you know if they have any salads here?"
5. (To his handler/campaign manager) "Sooooo like...did Hillary eat pork chop on a stick cuz I don't want to appear less manly than that woman?"
4. "It's sooooooo awesome...check it out.....an Iowa Hawkeye temporary tattoo!"
3. "Explain to me again why there's a cow and a Harry Potter made out of butter again."
2. (To secret service)..."Guys...GUYS...take it easy on the corn dogs it's not like I have Hillary's war chest."

...and the number one thing I overheard Barack Obama say at the Iowa State Fair today from the home office in Des Moines Iowa...

1. "I vow to banish all trans fats from the Iowa State Fair...but there will be a deep fried Twinkie Exemption even if I have to do it by secret executive order and torture people to make it happen!"

(cue the music)

bonus overheard nugget" "Chief Justice Roberts? Sheesh..yeah I could take him"

Kotkin on the Burbs...Data Shows Continued Strength

The first paragraph of Joel Kotk